The world is moving towards a new global economic crisis, amplified by the abolition or withdrawal of major actors from the free trade agreements that led to growth and efficiency, but also the prospect of the American-Chinese commercial war, postponed in the last moment of the signs of collapse of the New York Stock Exchange by President Donald Trump.
The economic crisis caused by wrong policies and the hand of man
Service pessimists have made a reputation from all the annual global economic crises, or at least regionals. If it is not a problem, if they come and behind the predictions, there is also a serious theory that meets the requirements of the domain, a Nobel prize can also come.
It's the case of Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize that predicted the 2008 crisis, and which is famous through the estrogenic announcements of numerous crises and after that moment. Crises that never happened before.
On the other hand, the cruel reality translates into clear figures and data which, then, can no longer be challenged. The reduction of economic growth and the braking of economies occur and are announced day by day on various meridians. But the last quarter has brought the most powerful signs of entry into global economic crisis, mainly targeting the most important economies, which are not feeling very well either.
Moreover, global Organisa, the IMF in particular, had to keep reviewing overall economic growth, reaching 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for next year. This is about the smallest global growth since the global economic crisis of 2008.
When over the natural course of economies, come from step-by-step developments, predictable, also comes direct human action – sanctions, leaving trade agreements, Brexit – then entering the recession is more likely and the clearing formulas They're getting tougher. All the more so in the case of the US-China commercial war, between the two largest economies of the world, with the introduction of a 10% tax on 1 September for products worth 300 billion dollars by the US, and in December a new tax on new product categories , on account of the major continuation of the debalancing of the Sino-American trade balance.
Recession of 5 major global economies
Cutting-edge data sends very disturbing messages. It is not just a repeated decline in global economic prospects and forecasts, but even concrete data, dry that give harsh verdict and show that at least 5 of the first global economies are in the lip of the recession or in the manoeuvre with the figures At the limit of creative budget engineers, to maintain an apparent breath of growth or even economic stagnation, as well as pessimistic to the public. And we're not talking here about US and chine.
In the SECOND quarter, Germany's economy, the Fourth of the world, contracted. Germany is a massive exporter in China and the US, the two countries entering the commercial war, which are mainly aimed at manufacturing areas, which advertise fewer products required from Germany. In addition, on the IT area, digitisation, new technologies, Germany is under pressure from the US and the debates on Huawei, technology and partner that could be missing from the 5G market. Moreover, the unreported EU trade war with the American Giants does not help, as it is known that there is no competitive force producer in the continent that is able to compete with the American and Chinese giants.
The German automobile industry is in Vrie, bad news for Romanian producers of various subassemblies. In addition, the Brexit prospect, which buries London, fundamentally affects, in perspective, Germany, and the EU entirely, by losing the second economy in the European conclave. Incidentally, Britain is already in recession in the 2nd quarter, for the first time since 2012 and the chance of a miraculous return over the summer, to avoid the formal recession, is very low. Moreover, an unagreed Brexit will blow up the British economy and stronger.
Italy encounters the new government crisis, determined by the bind of Salvini, with a debt that is difficult to compensate, and especially with the famous zero growth, with the prospect of entry at any time in a formal recession, if the informal one is still compensated by creative accounts and fireworks. China is at the lowest historical growth, while the prospects of the trade war with the US do not look good, and threats with the sale of American Treasury bills and the game with currency to compensate for American supra-taxes only announce a spiral Constraints and collapse for the two conflicting actors, the US and China, but also for all global players.
800 to puncture the fall of Dow Jones, an infallible indicator until today announcing the global crisis